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European Jihadist in Idlib, what is next, By Jassim Mohamad

Dec 11, 2018 | Studies & Reports

Where Will the European Jihadist Go After Idlib?
By Jassim Mohamed – 7Dnews.

Russian and Turkish troops are enforcing a new demilitarized zone in Syria’s Idlib region from which “radical” rebels should withdraw. “We agreed on the withdrawal from that zone of the heavy weapons, tanks, rockets systems and mortars of all opposition groups,” President Putin said, on October 10th, 2018, with President Erdogan standing alongside him.

What area does the buffer zone cover?

The zone comprises a strip between 15 and 20 kilometres (9 to 12.4 miles) wide in the last remaining rebel stronghold, Idlib. Until a few days ago, various anti-Assad militias controlled strategically important roads there and operated artillery posts from which they would bombard the Syrian army, according to a report by Udo Bauer on DW.
The United States’ top military officer, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Joseph Dunford, said that little progress has been made in dealing with the underlying conditions that have given rise to armed Islamist militants, even as military gains have been made against groups like Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (Isis). This is according to a Reuters report from Washington on October 16th, 2018.
Turkey’s role in Idlib

A study by the Lawfare centre says that Turkey’s willingness to allow fighters to transit its border has also been unusual. While other jihads had access points – Pakistan as a gateway to Afghanistan, for example – the route in these was often hard and expensive, requiring extensive smuggling networks. In contrast, volunteers for Isis simply showed up in Turkey, where the group escorted them across the border.

“Hardcore radicals” in Idlib

A pro-Assad Syrian MP, Fares Shehabi, told the BBC’s Reality Check that there were as many as 100,000 “al-Qaeda affiliated terrorists” in Idlib, of whom 40,000 were what he called “hardcore radicals”. There are also many foreign jihadists in Idlib, many of them fighting for groups associated with al-Qaeda.
But the top US general is reported to have estimated that there were 20,000 to 30,000 militants in Idlib, while the UN’s special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, recently estimated there were 10,000 fighters in Idlib associated with al-Qaeda, including many foreigners. The Lawfare study centre said Libya might be the most active Isis province and for a year seemed to be creating a true mini-state, or it may be West Africa because of geographic reasons.
Many foreign fighters are with Kurdish groups in Syria. A report in October 2018 estimates the number of foreign volunteers with the Syrian Kurds at some 900 members from more than 40 countries, according to a spokesman for the People’s Protection Units.

Some hundreds of Europeans are still trying to return to their countries despite the threat of jail when they go back.
Turkey has recently received European support driven by fear of new waves of refugees. Both France and Britain have spearheaded the position of Europe in a special session of the UN-Security Council on Idlib, where they expressed their full support for the Turkish vision.
Turkish, Russian, French and German leaders met in Istanbul on October 26th, 2018 and discussed the future of Syria. Germany had clear objectives, and during the meeting, focused on the refugee issue.
It is estimated that there are now about 2.9 million people living in Idlib and its surrounding area.

What should be done?

Interpol should play a key role in this mechanism, mostly in regard to foreign fighters, their basic data, documents, fingerprints, DNA and biometrics. Diplomatic efforts are badly needed in the Syria crisis and in Idlib to reach a political solution.
European Intelligence services need to cooperate with the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units and the Iraqi – and possibly Turkish – government, to obtain more information on European jihadists. Turkey and some regional parties may tolerate the flow of jihadis and other fighters back and forth to the war zone because majority of Isis foreign fighters entered the country from Turkey, having established recruitment and logistics for their networks there.
It is believed that European countries, mainly Britain and France, should make greater efforts and shoulder the responsibility of making arrangements for foreign fighters and their families to come back home. Particular attention should be paid to their women and children, otherwise these too will be turned into radicals. Leaving the foreign fighters in Syria means “recycling” them in Syria, Iraq, and other countries. Large numbers of jihadists want to return to their homelands, in spite of the fact that they will face judicial punishment of between 5 – 15 years in prison. Nevertheless, the situation in Idlib city remains critical and complicated, because of the many differences among political parties and their conflicting priorities and interests.

Jassim Mohamad

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