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Ukraine ـ NATO invite seems out of reach

Oct 18, 2024 | Studies & Reports

European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI

Zelensky brings Victory Plan to Brussels, but NATO invite seems out of reach

washingtonpost  – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to drum up more support for his Victory Plan in Brussels on Thursday, but a key part of it, an invitation to join the Western military NATO alliance, appears elusive.

Zelensky has presented the plan in his parliament, describing the first step as an immediate and unconditional invitation to join NATO, a suggestion sure to incense the Kremlin. But NATO officials said they did not expect an invitation to Ukraine anytime soon, especially with the United States absorbed by the last weeks of the presidential race and many European leaders watching to see how the imminent election could change the transatlantic relationship.

Zelensky has visited the United States and toured European capitals in recent weeks to seek their backing, but the visits have drawn limited public comments of support and made little apparent progress.

“It is important for us that we are strengthened, and the first step should be an invitation,” Zelensky said Thursday after presenting his plan to leaders at a European Union summit in Brussels. While actual accession “might come after the war,” he acknowledged, the sooner it starts, the better the chances for a “just peace.”

The Ukrainian president said he discussed the NATO issue with President Joe Biden, Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump on his recent U.S. trip. But he noted some U.S. fears that the NATO question “has the potential of dragging the United States into the war.”

“So there are certain red lines, even in inviting Ukraine to NATO, but in my view this is not so,” he said, adding that if you’re “mentioning it in words that Ukraine is very important for European security … then words and actions should go together.”

He said Trump “agreed with my arguments” when the two spoke about a NATO invite, without elaborating on the former U.S. president’s views.

Zelensky will stop next at NATO on Thursday to meet with Secretary General Mark Rutte at the alliance’s headquarters, where his defense minister is also pushing the plan.

The Ukrainian leader’s flurry of visits has succeeded in putting the question of a NATO invitation high on the agenda, but Kyiv’s biggest Western backers have so far approached it with caution.

“We are not at the point right now where the alliance is talking about issuing an invitation in the short term,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters on Wednesday. “But as always, we will continue conversations with our friends in Ukraine to talk to them about ways in which they can continue to move closer to this alliance.”

In response to questions on whether he supports the victory plan, Rutte did not exactly say yes. He said Wednesday he was confident Ukraine would one day join the alliance and that he would “applaud when that day comes.” That “doesn’t mean that I here can say I support the whole plan,” he added. “That would be a bit difficult because there are many issues of course we have to understand better.”

Zelensky’s push is happening against a backdrop of not just the U.S. election but also a tense battlefield situation and a difficult winter after Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

“Right now, there’s discussions here and there, in NATO, in the 32 countries, in Ukraine, but I don’t see a change” in the positions of major countries, including the United States, said a NATO diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

“Some decisions will not be taken on day one of a new U.S. administration, but things might take a while until new positions are defined,” the diplomat said. “Zelensky might feel that now there’s a momentum.”

Joining NATO would give Ukraine security guarantees from the alliance in the case of future attacks. Even with an invitation, however, Ukraine could still be a long way from actually joining the alliance, with drawn-out accession talks expected.

NATO leaders agreed at their July summit in Washington to support Ukraine “on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership,” but even that wording took weeks of intense negotiation.

Baltic nations, staunch allies of Ukraine gripped by their own fears of becoming future targets for Russia, voiced strong support for a NATO invitation to Ukraine. Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas said it should happen now. He told reporters Thursday that an invite to Ukraine would be “a real irreversibility, a point of no return.”

Ukrainian officials are placing their hopes on the last stretch of Biden’s presidency, after the November election but before a new president takes office in January, hoping Biden might be focused more on his legacy and less on U.S. politics.

A senior NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to comment on sensitive discussions, said there appeared to be more impetus around the idea of extending an invitation to NATO. But while Kyiv was hoping for a decision soon, it was unlikely because “there’s a lot of ifs and buts,” he said, and some countries remained unconvinced.

He said he would not expect Ukraine’s accession — and the security guarantees enshrined in NATO’s mutual defense clause that come with it — before the conflict ends “and whatever line of demarcation we have then is stabilized. It won’t happen before.”

Russian forces have made steady advances in the east, seeking to turn the battlefield momentum against Ukraine ahead of the winter, including taking the town of Vuhledar that Ukrainian forces fought to defend for two years. And the outcome of Ukraine’s gamble to attack Russia’s Kursk region in the summer remains unclear as Russian forces are counterattacking.

This has fueled worries that Russia’s tactical advances in Ukraine would continue and “add up,” a second NATO official said. “Optimistic is not a word I would use to describe the situation right now,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to give an assessment of the battlefield. “We know how difficult fighting conditions are in the wintertime.”

The official said the Kursk attack pushed Russia to slowly divert some additional forces to “start to retake that” and appeared to have a “morale impact” but said that it was not generating the impact Kyiv may have hoped for.

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