European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Redefining reliance: Europe’s search for strategic autonomy
eureporter ـ In Brussels, one phrase has gained quiet urgency over the past five years: strategic autonomy. Once dismissed as French idealism, it has become a guiding principle for European policymakers navigating an uncertain world—one where the United States no longer looks like the unshakable ally it once was. From defense and trade to energy security, Europe is redefining its place in a world no longer shaped solely by Washington, writes Kung Chan, the founder of ANBOUND.
Initially, “strategic autonomy” was framed primarily as a defense goal—the idea that Europe should be able to protect itself without relying entirely on the United States. By the time Trump returned to the White House in 2025, strategic autonomy had become more than a slogan—it was policy. The European Commission had already incorporated it into official strategies across multiple sectors: defense and security, digital infrastructure, energy supply, and critical raw materials. What once seemed like French idealism became a shared strategic framework.
Crucially, strategic autonomy is not about cutting ties. European leaders are careful to emphasize that they are not seeking to “decouple” from the US. Instead, the goal is “rebalancing”—developing the ability to act independently where needed, while maintaining cooperation where interests align. In an increasingly volatile world, that balance is seen not as division, but as resilience.
Economic: Redrawing trade and supply lines
Economic sovereignty has become a central pillar of Europe’s strategic autonomy push—especially in response to renewed U.S. tariffs. Shortly after returning to office, President Trump reimposed steep duties on EU steel and aluminum. Brussels responded by preparing a €95 billion list of potential countermeasures and warning that trade retaliation would follow if talks collapsed.
Tensions had already been building over the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, whose domestic subsidy rules sparked concern in Europe about unfair competition and industrial leakage. In response, the EU unveiled its own Net-Zero Industry Act to retain clean-tech investment and strengthen industrial competitiveness at home.
Beyond reacting to Washington, Europe is actively diversifying trade ties. A free trade deal with South America’s Mercosur bloc was signed in December. In February, Canada and the EU agreed to deepen commercial cooperation, and in April, talks began on a trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates. Alongside this, the EU has introduced policies to secure critical supply chains and limit dependency on foreign technology in sectors like semiconductors and AI.
Defense: Moving beyond the American umbrella
Europe’s push for strategic autonomy has become most visible in the defense sector, where tensions with Washington have sharpened. The Trump administration has repeatedly pressured NATO allies to raise defense spending, most recently proposing that members dedicate 5% of GDP to military budgets—a dramatic increase from the longstanding 2% target. Trump also warned that the US could reconsider its commitment to NATO’s Article 5, the mutual defense clause, if allies failed to meet spending expectations. The message was clear: Europe should not take American protection for granted.
The war in Ukraine has further exposed the fragility of European defense reliance. While Washington provided the lion’s share of early military support, recent moves—including threats to halt aid and back-channel outreach to Moscow—have unnerved European capitals. As a result, EU leaders have begun laying the groundwork for a more independent defense capability. In March, the European Council backed Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plan to “rearm Europe,” pledging €800 billion to boost defense readiness by 2030. The accompanying “2030 Preparedness” white paper outlines measures to increase joint procurement, expand defense industry capacity, and reduce reliance on external suppliers.
This shift is already reshaping the defense industry. Major EU members such as France, Germany, and Poland have announced new military investment plans, and companies are gradually limiting cooperation with U.S. partners in favor of domestic production. The EU’s “European Defence Industrial Strategy,” adopted in early 2025, prioritizes homegrown systems and cross-border defense integration. Initiatives like PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) are aimed at building a coordinated EU military framework, while discussions around an independent nuclear deterrent—led by France—are gaining traction. Together, these moves reflect a strategic recalibration: not abandoning NATO, but preparing for a Europe less dependent on it.
Energy: From crisis response to strategic diversification
The war in Ukraine forced Europe to rapidly reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels—but the solution it turned to first, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), has come with its own challenges. Though American LNG helped stabilize supply in the short term, high prices, volatile contracts, and infrastructure bottlenecks have raised concerns about replacing one dependency with another. As U.S. energy exports increasingly reflect political leverage, not just market dynamics, Brussels has begun rethinking the long-term security of its energy partnerships.
Strategic autonomy in energy now means diversification. The EU has been actively expanding its energy cooperation beyond the transatlantic axis, strengthening ties with producers like Norway, Algeria, and Qatar. It is also working to build up renewable capacity and cross-border electricity grids within Europe. Key policy tools such as the REPowerEU plan and the Critical Raw Materials Act aim to not only green the energy system but ensure that Europe controls the technology and resources needed to sustain it.
At the same time, the EU is trying to shield its internal market from external carbon risks. In 2026, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will enter full force, taxing imported goods based on their carbon intensity. This measure not only supports climate goals, but also acts as a form of energy sovereignty—ensuring that Europe is not undercut by high-emission imports, including from the U.S. The larger goal is clear: to build an energy system that is cleaner, more resilient, and less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
Despite growing political consensus, Europe’s path to strategic autonomy remains uneven. Not all member states share the same priorities—Eastern countries like Poland and the Baltic states continue to see the U.S. as an indispensable security partner, and remain cautious about shifting too far from NATO. This divergence complicates EU-wide coordination, especially in defense planning and industrial integration.
Practical hurdles also persist. Building capacity in sectors like semiconductors or defense manufacturing takes time, funding, and coordination—often in competition with global players. Meanwhile, internal disagreements over spending, procurement rules, and foreign policy direction slow progress. Strategic autonomy may be the destination, but getting there will require steady compromise and political will.
Europe’s push for strategic autonomy is no longer theoretical. From tariffs to tanks, energy contracts to trade deals, the EU is steadily shifting from reliance to resilience. This doesn’t mean turning away from the United States, but it does mean preparing for a world where transatlantic alignment can no longer be assumed.
Progress will be uneven, and some dependencies will remain. But the direction is clear: Europe is learning to hedge—by diversifying partners and building the capacity to act independently. The real question now is not whether Europe wants more autonomy, but how far it is willing to go—and at what cost.
European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
