European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Russia Using Donald Trump Peace Talks to Divide US and Europe: ISW
NEWSWEEK ـ The upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Vladimir Putin is being used by the Kremlin to divide the U.S. from Europe over the war in Ukraine, according to analysis.
That assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) comes amid a diplomatic flurry involving Ukraine’s European allies and concerns that Friday’s talks between the leaders in Alaska could present the Russian president with an advantage.
Russian officials want to weaken cohesion between the U.S, Ukraine and Europe by promoting the latter two as barriers to a deal to end the war, the Washington, D.C.-based think tank said.
Ukrainian geopolitical analyst Viktor Kovalenko told Newsweek Monday the summit was “a vital diplomatic breakthrough for both the U.S. and Ukraine.”
Why It Matters
Kyiv and its allies are concerned that the Russian president is not interested in any deal given that he has not backed down on his goals of fully subjugating Ukraine. This is especially pertinent given that it has been reported the U.S. is proposing swapping land Moscow partially occupies for peace, which Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected.
What To Know
The Kremlin and Russian media have responded positively to Friday’s meeting which will see Putin’s first visit to the U.S. in a decade to Alaska, a U.S. state which was part of the Russian empire until 1867.
Putin has refused a U.S.-proposed ceasefire Ukraine backs, demanding Kyiv forgo NATO membership and withdraw troops from partially-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as preconditions for peace.
It has been reported that Trump has said he and Putin will discuss a ceasefire proposal involving Kyiv ceding eastern territories to Russia, which Zelensky has firmly rejected, warning it would allow Moscow to regroup and attack again.
But Europe would also oppose such a deal and so officials close to the Kremlin have presented the continent, rather than Moscow, as the barrier to peace.
Russian political scientist Sergei Markov told The Washington Post that Russia’s main interest in the summit is to portray Ukraine and Europe rather than Russia as the obstacles to a deal.
Meanwhile, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on social media that “Euro-imbeciles” are trying to stop the U.S. from striking a deal.
This echoed a view from the head of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), Leonid Slutsky, who is part of the systemic opposition but backs Putin’s foreign policy, said European countries are trying to prevent a quick peace settlement in Ukraine.
The ISW used these examples as showing the Kremlin’s intentions to use the Alaska summit to divide the U.S. from Europe rather than engage in meaningful peace efforts.
Moscow has not budged from its long-term goals of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, the installation of a pro-Russian proxy government, and Ukraine’s demilitarization, which would ensure Ukraine’s full capitulation, the ISW said.
Russia will also very likely violate any ceasefire while blaming Ukraine for the violations as it repeatedly did in spring 2025, the think tank added.
The White House is considering inviting Zelensky to the summit, said the ISW, on the back of several reports citing sources familiar with the matter.
Kovalenko, from Ukraine Decoded, said this reported move by Washington signaled its awareness of Ukrainian concerns and contradicted Trump critics who have framed the event as sidelining Kyiv.
If Zelensky had a role, he could propose a phased deal in which Russian withdraws from most of the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including its nuclear power plant, in exchange for gradual sanctions relief, Kovalenko told Newsweek.
Crucially, Ukraine must retain its so-called “fortress belt” in Donetsk and Luhansk, a bulwark against future Russian incursions, he added.
What People Are Saying
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Sunday: “The Kremlin is attempting to use the upcoming Alaska summit to divide the United States from Europe rather than engage in meaningful peace efforts.”
Viktor Kovalenko, from Ukraine Decoded substack: “The Alaska summit could halt the bloodshed, but without Ukraine’s buy-in and a focus on Russian withdrawal from key regions, it risks becoming a diplomatic mirage.”
What Happens Next
Before the Alaska summit, diplomatic wrangling is likely to continue with Bloomberg reporting how European leaders are likely push the conversation toward a ceasefire based on the current front line as a first step toward a broader settlement, rather than a proposal to swap land for peace.
European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
