European Centre for Counter terrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Ukraine’s ‘stalled’ EU membership bid
euractiv ـ In today’s edition: Lithuania urges progress on Ukraine’s EU push, von der Leyen defends US tariff deal, France braces for online protests. That shift has not materialised.
Now they worry about something just as disquieting: that Ukrainians themselves might begin to doubt Europe’s promises.
Lithuania, one of Kyiv’s most vocal advocates, has warned other EU governments that “tangible progress” on Ukraine’s membership bid is essential if Brussels is to maintain credibility, according to a memo circulated to capitals around the bloc and seen by The Capitals.
Negotiations have stalled since June, Vilnius wrote, and the EU’s “failure to reciprocate Ukraine’s expectations and implemented reforms” has already been used by domestic and foreign bad actors to undermine Kyiv’s confidence in Europe.
The remedy, Lithuania stated, is simple: move forward. Denmark should convene talks in Copenhagen in early September to open negotiations for Ukraine – and Moldova – as a 26-strong bloc if Hungary refuses to join. “It would convey a clear message that Ukraine’s and Moldova’s European path remain a priority for the EU,” the document said.
The obstacle is Viktor Orbán, who has wielded a veto on Ukraine’s accession for months.
Lithuania’s document hints at a wish for political change in Hungary. Without mentioning names or countries, it proposes continuing legal work regardless and formalising membership once “EU27 support is rebuilt.” That phrase is coy shorthand for Hungary’s 2026 election, when Orbán faces a challenge from Péter Magyar.
Ukraine, which gained candidate status in 2022, has advanced reforms on its judiciary, oligarchs and minority rights to bolster its EU bid – though not without setbacks. Most recently, the government restored its anti-corruption agencies after public outcry and pressure from Brussels over an attempt to curb their independence.
For Vilnius, the stakes are personal. Shaped by Soviet occupation and sharing a border with Russia, it views Ukraine’s survival as integral to its own security.“Your victorious fight … will be written into history textbooks for thousands of years to come,” EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, who is Lithuanian, told Ukrainians gathered outside the European Parliament in celebration of the country’s 1991 independence over the weekend. Ukraine’s Ambassador to the EU Vsevolod Chentsov also voiced confidence that Kyiv would soon become a member of the bloc.
Yet enlargement is only one front. Europe’s leaders have been preoccupied with transatlantic diplomacy, recently visiting Washington to garner post-war security guarantees for Kyiv and restrain Donald Trump from siding with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday called for Putin to meet him for peace talks. Ironically, Budapest – the capital blocking Ukraine’s accession – has been floated as a possible venue for the meeting, which could involve Trump as well, as my colleague Magnus Lund Nielsen writes here.
European Centre for Counter terrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
