European Centre for Counter terrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Russia massing nuclear fleet in Arctic Circle ‘for war with Nato’
Telegraph ـ Moscow building up on Kola peninsula and testing new weapons, Norway’s defence minister warns
Russia is amassing nuclear weapons and attack submarines in the Arctic Circle as it prepares for war with Nato, Norway’s defence minister has warned. In an interview with The Telegraph, Tore Sandvik said Oslo had detected increased weapons development on Russia’s Kola peninsula, where its prized Northern Fleet and parts of its nuclear stockpile are based. He also said that Vladimir Putin was trying to gain full naval control over the Arctic region so that he could block Nato allies’ access to two key shipping routes that would help resupply Western forces in wartime.
“Russia is building up on the Kola peninsula … where one of the largest arsenals of nuclear warheads in the world is located. They [the nuclear weapons] are not only pointed towards Norway, but towards the UK and over the pole towards Canada and the US,” Mr Sandvik told the Telegraph. “We are the eyes and ears of Nato in this area, and we see that they’re testing new weapons, for example hypersonic missiles, and they are testing nuclear-driven torpedoes and nuclear warheads,” he added.
The Kola peninsula lies on Russia’s extreme northwestern flank in the Arctic Circle, where it borders Finland and the furthest northern territories of Norway.It is notorious for housing the most highly concentrated nuclear weapons stockpile in the world, and plays a crucial role in Moscow’s so-called “second strike” capability.
Russia ‘developing’ Northern Fleet
In nuclear strategy, the “second strike” is a country’s ability to launch a devastating counter-attack against an initial nuclear strike by an enemy power, such as the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrent.The Kola peninsula also serves as a base for the Northern Fleet, the Russian Arctic naval force which was created in 1733 to protect the Russian Empire’s fisheries and shipping routes.Today, Mr Sandvik said, it serves a more ominous purpose: testing new, powerful Russian weapons and expanding Putin’s nuclear capabilities.
“Even though Putin is losing heavily in Ukraine – he has lost one million soldiers – the Northern Fleet is intact. And they are developing it,” he said. “They have a new frigate and a new multi-role submarine, developed just in the last two years. The most threatening thing about Russia right now is its submarines. Even though Russia is not able to win in Ukraine, the threat of nuclear warheads and second strike capacity from up here [Kola] makes them a superpower still.”
Even before the latest expansion, the Northern Fleet held at least 16 nuclear-powered submarines and a hypersonic missile type called the Tsirkon, which can travel at eight times the speed of sound.Along with the United States and the British government, Norway is “watching this 24/7,” Mr Sandvik said. “It’s the most important surveillance in Nato.” As Russia continues its illegal war on Ukraine and wages so-called hybrid warfare on the Western allies, Norway and Britain are concerned that the Arctic region is turning into a third key battleground.
The melting of ice caps in the region has opened up new shipping routes which would be immensely lucrative as they would halve the distance ships would need to travel between Europe and Asia. But in Oslo, officials say there is also intense competition over control of two strategically key shipping routes in the Arctic as they would be critical supply lines in the event of war with Russia. The first is the Bear Gap, the stretch of water between mainland Norway and the island of Svalbard, which Russian ships must pass through to reach the Atlantic ocean.
The second is known as the GIUK Gap, a pair of naval choke points between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom. “Putin needs to establish what is called the Bastion defence. He needs to control the Bear Gap to make sure that he can use his submarines and the Northern Fleet. And he wants to deny [Nato] allies access to the GIUK Gap,” said Mr Sandvik. “He wants to deny allies supplies, help, and support in the transatlantic, he needs to control the area. And all his doctrines and military plans are about that,” he added. “So for us, the most important thing for Norway is to have control over those gaps.”
Putin ‘not interested in peace’
If the war in Ukraine ends, he added, the Arctic Circle would likely become the next “main security theatre” due to the likelihood of Putin sending troops to threaten Finland’s borders. “Putin is not interested in peace…Putin’s plan is not a stable peace with Ukraine. If he can, he will come back,” he said. “Even if we have a peace deal in Ukraine, with boots on the ground and a stable situation, one analysis is that he will mobilise millions of soldiers up close to the border with Finland.”
Tensions have also risen in recent weeks between Nato and Russia in the Arctic over military exercises, including a German naval test launch of torpedoes and missiles. Two Russian spy ships have been spotted sailing in a “zigzag” pattern close to the Germans’ test firing zone, the Norwegian newspaper Barent Observer reported earlier this week. SMP Arkhangelsk, a Russian cargo ship, was also seen sailing “suspiciously” close to the exercise zone, the newspaper said.
In May, David Lammy, then UK foreign secretary, announced that British troops would be stepping up their efforts, in tandem with Norway, to deny Russian control over the Arctic region. “As ice caps in the region melt, new shipping routes and resources will be exposed, further heightening the risk of confrontation,” he told the Telegraph after observing a joint patrol by British and Norwegian ships. “That’s why we must take action to deter threats in the Arctic.” Mr Sandvik was delighted that Russian vessels have been straying over for a closer look at Nato’s military prowess. “The Russians are watching this and we want them to see what we’re doing,” he said.
