European Centre for Counter terrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Russia in ‘Pre-War Mode’ Against NATO: General
newsweek ـ Russia has started to prepare for war with Poland, the country’s military chief has said, in comments that echo warnings by European leaders about Moscow’s intentions post-Ukraine.
General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, Wiesław Kukuła, made the remarks to Polish media as his country’s authorities investigate explosions on the country’s railway lines discovered on Sunday.
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk had said there was an “unprecedented act of sabotage” and while Warsaw has not blamed Moscow directly, it has previously accused Russia of numerous hybrid acts of hostility.
Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told Newsweek that the damage to the railway line sent a warning that hostile actors can hit Europe’s critical infrastructure inside NATO territory.
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.
Why It Matters
Poland is a NATO member and the railway line that was hit provided a critical link for delivering aid to Ukraine.
Kukuła’s comments express the latest concerns from officials in Europe that Moscow is ready to test NATO’s resilience by expanding its belligerence beyond Ukraine.
What To Know
Tusk said an explosive device destroyed the railway line, about 60 miles southeast of Warsaw, halfway between the capital and Lublin. The damage was detected by a train driver who made an emergency stop around 7.30 a.m. Sunday.
No one was injured but Tusk said on X it was “an unprecedented act of sabotage aimed at the security of the Polish state and its citizens.”
According to the BBC, investigators are also looking into a second incident further down the same line on Sunday, where train was forced to stop suddenly in what is believed to be another act of sabotage.
Investigative journalist Christo Grozev posted on X images of the damaged rail track and an electrical cable laid across the track on the route to the city of Rzeszَw, which he said suggested there was a remote detonation.
Tusk did not mention Russia directly but Kukuła told Polskie Radio that Moscow had “begun the period of preparing for war” and were setting the conditions for potential aggression on Polish territory.
Kukuła said that what was happening was not an actual war, rather “a pre‑war situation — or what we refer to as hybrid warfare.”
He said U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remarks comparing the current global situation to 1939, on the eve of World War II, and 1981, the height of the Cold War, were a “very good comparison.”
Colson from ESSEC told Newsweek the suspected sabotage will raise questions about NATO resistance.
It also showed how the war in Ukraine was spilling into everyday layers of Europe’s economy in which railway lines, airports, ports and logistics hubs were front-line spaces, Colson added.
Wojciech Michnik, assistant professor at Jagiellonian University, Krakow and project coordinator at LSE IDEAS, the London School of Economics think tank, told Newsweek that Kukuła was correct to frame Russia’s actions against NATO as a “pre-war situation” but this does not need to be followed by war.
The hybrid threats are designed to build an environment favorable for aggression and test responses and do not necessarily guarantee escalation to conventional warfare, Michnik added.
A full-scale invasion of Poland, in the manner Russia invaded Ukraine, is rather not viable, given Russia’s current military capacities, Poland’s military build-up and the collective defense guarantees of NATO membership, Michnik said, “however, this reality must not diminish Poland’s ongoing preparation.”
European leaders have repeatedly accused Russia of waging hybrid warfare against Ukraine’s allies, through sabotage, cyberattacks and drone incursions, allegations Moscow has denied.
In September, Poland raised the alarm when drones entered its airspace from neighboring Belarus, whose leader is Vladimir Putin’s closest ally.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday the explosions on Polish railway tracks come as Russia steps up its “Phase Zero” campaign to destabilize Europe, and set the political, informational, and psychological conditions “for a potential war against NATO. ”
What People Are Saying
General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, Wieslaw Kukuła: “We are always in a pre‑war period; even the Cold War was such a period. It is a matter of managing this pre‑war time, building an effective deterrence policy.”
Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business: “This is not just transport sabotage — it is a warning that hostile actors can hit Europe’s critical infrastructure inside NATO territory, raising questions of alliance resilience. Moscow remains the primary suspect— Russia has the motive and the method.”
What Happens Next
Polish authorities are investigating the acts of sabotage on the railway line as calls are likely to grow for a Europe-wide response to Russia’s alleged acts of hybrid warfare.
