European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Geneva Negotiations on Ukraine, The Dilemma of Security Guarantees and Territorial Concessions in the Settlement Process
On neutral ground, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia are discussing the terms for ending the war. Amid an atmosphere of deep mistrust, senior representatives from Russia and Ukraine are meeting in Switzerland to negotiate an end to the war that began four years ago. While the Ukrainian side, with American mediation, seeks primarily to focus on humanitarian issues and security guarantees in the Geneva talks, Russia aims to extract permanent territorial concessions from its neighbor. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused the Russians of already planning a new wave of violent attacks on Ukrainian cities. The attacks continued ahead of the talks. A delegation from Kyiv, headed by Rustem Umerov, Secretary of Ukraine National Security and Defense Council, arrived in Geneva. Umerov announced: “The agenda items have been agreed upon, and the team is ready to work.” He had previously stated that a partial ceasefire to protect Ukraine energy supplies is a goal for the upcoming round of talks. In addition to Umerov, the Ukrainian delegation includes the head of the Presidential Office, Kyrylo Budanov, Deputy Foreign Minister Serhii Kyslytsia, and Deputy Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitskyi.
The Russian Delegation Must Fly Over NATO Territory
The Kremlin announced that the negotiations must go beyond security and military issues to include territorial disputes. Russia is demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the areas it controls in Luhansk and Donetsk and intends to annex these regions. This is categorically rejected not only in Kyiv but also by Ukraine European allies, who warn against rewarding Russia for its war against Ukraine and fear that such a peace settlement could fuel further expansionist ambitions.
The Russian delegation, comprising more than 20 people from Moscow, is headed by chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. According to Russian sources, the delegation includes the head of Russian military intelligence (GRU), Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. Russian state media reported that the delegation was forced to alter its flight route from Moscow to Geneva for several hours, as the route from Russia to Switzerland necessarily passes over the territory of NATO and European Union member states, and overflight clearance was granted with assistance from the United States.
The talks between the warring parties in Geneva are an extension of previous meetings held in the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. administration, led by President Donald Trump, mediated this meeting, sending chief negotiator Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. In addition to the trilateral meeting, there are plans to hold Russian-American talks to explore ways to revive economic relations between the two countries.
Zelenskyy Urges Acceleration of Supplies
Ahead of the new round of negotiations in Geneva, President Zelenskyy warned of a large-scale Russian attack on energy facilities in Ukraine. Zelenskyy said: “Russia cannot resist the temptation and wants to deliver a painful blow to Ukrainians in the final days of the winter cold.” He added: “Unlike the Ukrainians, the Russians are unwilling to make any concessions. Russia rejects everything, continues its offensive along the front lines, and carries out air raids on our cities and our energy supplies.” Therefore, the leadership in Moscow must be compelled to make peace, for example through the imposition of new sanctions.
Zelenskyy also called on Western allies to accelerate efforts to strengthen Ukraine air defenses. The president stressed: “It is necessary to urgently implement what we discussed with our partners in Munich (during the Munich Conference).” The longer the wait for supplies, the greater the damage caused by Russian attacks.
Starlink Service as a Tool of Pressure on Russia
Ukrainian forces recaptured 201 square kilometers from Russia during February 2026, benefiting from the suspension of Starlink service for Russian forces, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The recaptured territory is concentrated around an area located 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia, where Russian forces have made significant advances since 2025. The Institute for the Study of War stated: “These Ukrainian counterattacks are likely exploiting the recent ban on Russian forces access to Starlink, which Russian military bloggers claimed is causing problems with communications and command and control on the battlefield.” Military observers on February 5, 2026, noted the disruption of Starlink antennas used by Moscow on the front lines, after Elon Musk announced “measures” to end the Kremlin use of the technology. The recaptured area is approximately equal to the area regained by Russian forces in December 2025 and is the largest area recaptured by Kyiv forces since the counteroffensive in June 2023.
Outcomes
The data indicate that the course of the war will be determined by three main variables: the balance of power on the ground, the continuity of Western support for Ukraine, and Russia ability to bear long-term economic and military costs. In the short term, a decisive breakthrough by either side is unlikely, suggesting the continuation of a pattern of mutual attrition, with limited escalation targeting energy infrastructure and logistical depth.
On the political level, negotiation rounds may turn into a long and intermittent process, used by both sides to manage the conflict rather than end it immediately. Ukraine will seek to secure practical security guarantees, whether through bilateral defense arrangements or by strengthening its own capabilities, while Russia will attempt to impose a new territorial reality that consolidates its control over disputed areas. The success of any settlement will remain contingent on the willingness of both sides to make reciprocal concessions, an indicator that does not appear strong at the current stage.
Economically, pressure on Russia through sanctions will continue, but Moscow ability to partially circumvent them, particularly through non-Western partners, may prolong its resilience. Conversely, the burden of reconstruction and economic recovery will pose a strategic challenge for Ukraine, making international financial support a decisive factor in its internal stability.
From a security perspective, an acceleration of the regional arms race in Eastern Europe is expected, with enhanced air defense systems and increased military deployments near Russian borders. The concept of European deterrence may also be redefined, becoming more reliant on defense industrial integration and operational coordination.
In the medium term, a reality of “no war, no peace” may emerge, with front lines freezing without final legal recognition, creating a permanent flashpoint liable to reignite with any major political or military shift. The positive scenario, however, would require a fundamental change in the strategic calculations of both sides, driven by internal pressures or international shifts that reshape the balance of power.
European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
