European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Exclusive: Top European spies sceptical US will clinch Ukraine peace deal this year
Reuters – European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the chances of an agreement being reached this year to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite Donald Trump’s assertions that U.S.-brokered talks have brought the prospect of a deal “reasonably close”.
The heads of five European spy agencies, who spoke to Reuters in recent days on condition of anonymity, said Russia did not want to end the war quickly. Four of them said Moscow was using the talks with the U.S. to push for sanctions relief and business deals.
The talks – the latest round of which took place in Geneva this week – are “negotiation theatre”, one European intelligence chief said.
The remarks point to a striking gulf in thinking between European capitals and the White House, which Ukraine says wants to clinch a peace agreement by June ahead of the U.S. congressional mid-term elections in November. Trump says he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to make a deal.
“Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed,” one of the European intelligence chiefs said. These include the removal of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy and for Ukraine to become a “neutral” buffer to the West.
The main issue, a second intelligence chief said, is that Russia neither wants nor needs a quick peace and its economy is “not on the verge of collapse”.
While the intelligence chiefs did not say how they obtained their information, their services use human sources, intercepted communications and various other means. All said they consider Russia a priority target for intelligence gathering.
Russia’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a written request for comment. Putin says he is ready for peace but on his terms. Russian officials say European governments have repeatedly been wrong in their assessments of Russia.
INTENSE DIPLOMACY
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met this week for their third U.S.-mediated meeting of 2026 without any breakthrough on key sticking points, including territory. After the meetings, Zelenskiy appeared frustrated by a lack of meaningful progress and suggested the Russians were more interested in discussing the conflict’s historical roots than reaching a near-term agreement.
European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
