European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Iran strikes put Mediterranean back in EU threat focus
euractiv ـ Europe’s recent defence overhaul was driven by Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine – but Iran’s attempt to strike Cyprus over the weekend could put the Eastern Mediterranean region back at the centre of the bloc’s threat assessment.
Last year, the Commission pitched four large-scale projects to prepare the continent to defend itself by 2030. At the time, the threat from Russia was top of mind, with Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius repeating that Moscow could attack the EU within the next decade.
However, the Commission also floated the idea of establishing a Mediterranean Flank Watch after several southern EU countries pushed for greater recognition of their security concerns in Brussels.
Now, as Iranian strikes on a British military base in Cyprus risk pulling the EU’s Eastern Mediterranean into the widening US-Israel confrontation with Iran, those calls for more Mediterranean security suddenly seem both urgent and prescient.
So far, the EU’s four defence projects are more buzzwords than tangible initiatives. However, attacks on Cyprus are giving the ideas new meaning and have spurred increased defence coordination in the region.
“What is happening shows the need to recall the flagships that we are coordinating with member states,” the Commission said on Tuesday, stressing the need to “advance” on the planned projects.
Greece sent fighter jets and frigates to Nicosia on Monday. Cypriot Prime Minister Nikos Christodoulides, meanwhile, said he had spoken with the French president, the German chancellor and the Italian prime minister about the security situation.
The government of Cyprus also added later on Tuesday that France would send one frigate equipped with anti-ballistic systems and anti-drone capabilities.
Eastern Flank Watch
Still, questions are also being raised about whether the chaos in the Middle East will attract much-needed military resources away from Europe’s eastern flank.
There is some concern that the developments following the strikes in Iran are stealing political attention and resources, one EU diplomat from an Eastern EU country told Euractiv. The source highlighted the air defence systems Ukraine needs to ward off Russia’s attacks, which might now be needed to protect Western bases within range of Iran.
A group of eight countries, co-led by Poland and Finland, committed last year to developing an Eastern Flank Watch – one of the Commission’s four projects – to deter possible attacks by Russia. However, it’s still unclear when those plans will materialise.
Defence capabilities used for one project could be deployed elsewhere on the continent to address another country’s national needs, one source involved in the discussions explained.
Work in progress
Meanwhile, none of the four large-scale defence projects has been officially endorsed by the entire bloc so far.
The Eastern Flank Watch, in particular, would include anti-drone, defence, and maritime capabilities, the Commission’s Defence Readiness Roadmap suggests. But it is based on what capabilities EU countries are willing to pool, build and procure.
Capitals in January already discussed what new capabilities they could develop jointly, which could then be used for these large-scale projects, including a pitch for air-defence capabilities by France, Italy and Germany.
Countries are expected to meet again this month to further flesh out their ideas.
European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
