European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
German Military Recruitment Surges Amid Fears of NATO War
newsweek ـ Germany is abandoning seven decades of military restraint. This week, the country unveiled its most ambitious defense strategy since 1945. It outlines plans to increase active-duty forces to 260,000 troops by the mid-2030s and boost reserve strength to 200,000. The stated goal is to become Europe’s strongest conventional military by 2039 and be ready to counter an increasingly aggressive Russia.
Nicole Schilling, deputy inspector general of Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, said recruitment is running 10 percent above last year’s pace and applications are up 20 percent. New legislation enshrines the expansion in law, with conscription as a fallback if voluntary recruitment falls short.
But the story is more complex. Germany’s military buildup is not only a response to the Russian threat. It is also a response to uncertainty about the United States.
The Expansion Plan
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the government is taking a pragmatic approach to recruitment. To ensure enough personnel, more applicants will be accepted than there are available posts.
“We are allowing for overbooking,” Pistorius said at a press conference announcing the strategy, titled Responsibility for Europe.
The expansion is following a three-phase timeline. A rapid buildup runs through 2029, followed by a capability-focused phase through 2035, and a technology-driven phase through 2039 and beyond. New legislation that took effect in January 2026 enshrines these milestones in law. Conscription, already included in military service law as a fallback, becomes an option if recruitment targets are missed.
The plan aims to grow the Bundeswehr from 185,420 active-duty soldiers to 260,000 by the mid-2030s. The reserve force will expand from roughly 60,000 assigned reservists to at least 200,000, for a combined total of about 460,000 combat-ready troops.
The accompanying capability shift moves away from fixed hardware targets such as the number of tanks, aircraft or ships. Instead, it adopts a more flexible, effects-based planning model. The military will prioritize deep precision strike capabilities, air defense against hypersonic missiles, and expanded drone forces.
“The question is not how many battalions the German army needs, but what effects it must be able to produce,” Pistorius said.
The official rationale for the expansion is clear. Russia is rebuilding its military and could pose a credible threat to NATO territory by 2029. German defense planners base this assessment on NATO intelligence and Russia’s ability to reconstitute forces despite heavy losses during the war in Ukraine.
“Germany, the richest and most populous European NATO member, is essential to maintaining peace in Europe by deterring Russian aggression,” said Wilson Beaver, senior policy advisor for defense budgeting and NATO policy at the Heritage Foundation.
“Increasing the Bundeswehr’s total end strength is necessary for Germany to achieve this,” he told Newsweek.
The Russia-Germany Gap
After decades of reductions, Germany’s current trajectory would not quickly restore past force levels. In 2004, it fielded about 2,400 tanks and 1,000 howitzers. At current rates, rebuilding tank stocks alone would take roughly four decades. Russia, by contrast, could reproduce Germany’s 2021 equipment inventory in only two to seven months.
“Russia set up a war economy,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).“Their defense industries are now humming. And once you set up a war economy, it is hard to turn that off.”
An analysis by Bergmann and colleagues at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, finds that Russia has sharply increased weapons production since the invasion of Ukraine. Tank output rose from about 40 per year in autumn 2022 to roughly 240 per year by 2024–2025. Artillery production reached 3.4 million howitzer rounds in 2025, about 285,000 per month.
Germany, by contrast, is scaling up more slowly. Berlin has ordered 198 Leopard 2A8 tanks, with deliveries beginning in April 2026 and averaging about 33 per year through 2030. It has also ordered 22 Panzerhaubitze 2000A4 self-propelled howitzers, with deliveries starting in May 2026 at roughly two per month. Much of this procurement replaces equipment sent to Ukraine or used for spare parts, limiting net expansion.
“It would take decades at the current procurement speed for German military stocks to reach the 2004 level,” Bergmann’s analysis concluded. “Ten years for fighter aircraft, 40 years for tanks, and 100 years for howitzers. By comparison, Russia would only need months to produce the 2021 Bundeswehr inventory.”
But force size alone won’t determine Germany’s readiness. David Cattler, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence and Security and Center for European Policy Analysis Senior Fellow, told Newsweek that the Bundeswehr’s long-standing challenge has been “readiness, sustainment, and enabling functions—logistics, munitions, command and control—more than end strength.”
He said the expansion signals intent but does not yet fully address the threat.
“There will be understandable skepticism given the historical lag between announcements and delivered capability,” Cattler said. “These decisions are as much about restoring confidence within the alliance as they are about matching Russian capacity on paper.”
Some analysts urge caution before assuming an imminent Russian attack on NATO. Mark Cancian, senior adviser at CSIS, told Newsweek in a recent interview that Russia is unlikely to directly confront NATO in the near term.
“They have their hands full in Ukraine,” he said. “Although they think they are winning, they are barely winning and at enormous cost. I don’t think you will see any lethal devices used against NATO.”
The real risk, according to Beaver, the Heritage Foundation fellow, emerges years after the conflict in Ukraine concludes.
“NATO should center its planning on the defense of the three Baltic states to deter Russia.”
“After the war in Ukraine ends, there is a clear potential for Russian aggression, particularly against the three Baltic states,” he added.
Trump Administration Pressure
Germany’s rearmament push is unfolding amid growing tension between the Trump administration and European NATO allies over defense spending and military cooperation.
In April, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was considering closing U.S. military bases in countries including Germany and Spain as punishment for their refusal to contribute forces to the U.S. war against Iran. Administration officials described the conflict as a “test” of NATO loyalty.
“I have a direct quote from the president of the United States on NATO,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on April 8, noting that Trump had raised the possibility of withdrawing from the alliance. She said the president could address the issue after meeting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
Trump has previously described NATO as “severely weakened and extremely unreliable.” At the 2025 NATO summit, he pressed allies to commit to spending 5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035, well above earlier targets.
Cattler, the senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Trump’s rhetoric has changed European security calculations.
“The real question is not whether the U.S. leaves NATO. It is whether the allies continue to trust the U.S. to lead,” he said.
Against that backdrop, Germany is expanding its military role in Eastern Europe as part of NATO’s effort to strengthen deterrence on the alliance’s eastern flank. In response to Russia’s war in Ukraine—and uncertainty about long-term U.S. leadership—Berlin has adopted a more forward posture, including permanently stationing combat forces in Lithuania, a break from its traditionally cautious defense policy.
“Germany’s permanent deployment of an armored brigade to Lithuania is a strong step, and Americans should welcome German efforts to take on more responsibility for collective security in Europe,” Beaver said.
Germany’s strategy document, Responsibility for Europe, reflects that shift. The title signals Berlin’s view that European countries must take greater responsibility for their own security.
“We have the money, and we’ve initiated procurement,” German Defense Minister Pistorius said Thursday.
However, Bergmann and colleagues caution that procurement alone is not enough.
“Germany’s federal government has achieved much recently, supporting Ukraine and starting to plug gaps in military capabilities,” their analysis noted. “However, budgetary commitments remain insufficient, and the strategy is not sufficiently convincing in its long-term and European perspectives.”
European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
