European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
Will U.S. Troops Be Relocated to Poland After the Withdrawal From Germany?
U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged that he is considering relocating some American troops withdrawn from Germany to Poland, as part of a broader discussion on a new deployment of NATO forces in Central and Eastern Europe. Polish Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski stated that talks are ongoing with the Pentagon regarding the possible transfer of some troops from Germany to Poland. He added, “I do not want to confirm or deny this at the moment. This is not the right time for comment; we must wait for the Pentagon’s decision. On the other hand, we intend to strengthen American capabilities in Poland and on the eastern flank in general.”
Possibility of Redeployment From Germany to Poland
The prospect of withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany has sparked diplomatic debate. However, the NATO treaty does not specify the exact number of American forces stationed in Europe. According to the latest U.S. National Defense Strategy, issued on January 23, 2026, defending American territory and deterring China remain top priorities, while Europe is considered of secondary importance.
When asked about the possibility of redeploying some troops to Poland, President Donald Trump said that such a move was “possible.” He emphasized the very good relationship with the Polish authorities and referred to President Karol Nawrocki, who had previously declared his support for him. Trump added: “Poland would welcome it. We have excellent relations with Poland, and I have an excellent relationship with President Nawrocki. Remember that I supported him, and he won despite being far behind at the beginning, but he won in the end. He is a great man, and I admire him greatly. So, it is possible, and perhaps I will do it.”
Partial Withdrawal of U.S. Forces From Germany
The U.S. administration intends to withdraw approximately 5,000 troops from Germany over the next six to twelve months. However, Trump indicated that the reduction could be larger. The number of American troops stationed in Germany currently ranges between 35,000 and 37,000 personnel.
Nawrocki announced that Poland is prepared to receive the American troops withdrawn from Germany and that the country possesses the necessary military infrastructure. Warsaw views any potential increase in the American military presence as a fundamental pillar for strengthening regional security and the eastern flank of NATO. Nawrocki explained: “We have infrastructure ready for use for this purpose. It is in the interest of Poland, Lithuania, and the Baltic states to have as many American soldiers stationed here as possible.”
Tensions Between the Trump Administration and Berlin
Behind this planned move lie tensions between the Trump administration and Berlin. During his first term, Trump criticized Germany for insufficient defense spending and announced a reduction in the American military presence. However, a similar 2020 plan for a partial withdrawal was never implemented.
Experts emphasize that not only the number of troops matters, but also their location. Tomasz Szatkowski, the former Polish ambassador to NATO, stated: “American forces in Germany have military importance, but they have even greater political and historical significance. From our perspective, the American military presence in Germany should continue, and this is clear. If these forces are reduced, we must strongly advocate transferring them to Poland. This is in our interest. Poland must send a clear message in this regard.”
Europe is working to strengthen cooperation through the establishment of new defense partnerships. During May 2026, Donald Tusk announced that an agreement between Poland and the United Kingdom would be signed, with defense considered one of its central pillars.
Points of Disagreement Between Merz and Trump
Since 2025 and 2026, developments have accelerated. In its new National Security Strategy in 2025, the U.S. administration warned Europe of a “civilizational collapse” due to migration. The United States also declared the Western Hemisphere to be its sphere of influence.
At the beginning of 2026, U.S. special forces launched an attack on Venezuela and abducted President Nicolás Maduro. The German Chancellor expressed caution, describing the legal situation as “complex,” despite the fact that the operation constituted a clear violation of international law. Shortly afterward came Trump’s threat to seize Greenland, the Danish territory, by force if necessary.
The unified European position, which regarded such a move as completely unacceptable, especially against a partner within NATO, appeared to achieve the desired result, as Trump abandoned the issue and has not returned to it since.
Another visit by the German Chancellor to Trump in March 2026, shortly after the outbreak of the Iran war, proceeded smoothly. Before departing, Friedrich Merz stated that he did not intend to “lecture” Trump on issues of international law, a position that was well received. Trump described the Chancellor as a “friend” and an “excellent leader.”
Nevertheless, criticism emerged in Europe suggesting that Merz was attempting to gain Trump’s favor at the expense of others, after he publicly agreed with Trump that Spain spends far too little on defense.
What Is the Future of the Dispute Between Washington and Berlin?
For a long time, the Chancellor’s strategy toward Trump appeared limited to cautious criticism from time to time, while attempting to keep Trump aligned with Germany and Europe. Germany’s military dependence on Washington remains extremely significant, including with regard to support for Ukraine.
Merz confirmed that he would not abandon transatlantic relations following the recent disagreement. He added: “I will not give up cooperation with Donald Trump.” He will have several additional opportunities for personal discussions during 2026, including at the G7 Summit in France in June 2026 and at the NATO Summit in Turkey in July 2026. The only question remains whether Trump will continue to seek cooperation with Friedrich Merz.
Henning Hoff from the German Council on Foreign Relations appears somewhat optimistic. On the one hand, he says: “Merz has undermined his own year-long efforts to build a good relationship with Trump.” However, the Chancellor could still seek direct talks with the American president, ease tensions, and “offer proposals on how Germany can help stabilize the Gulf after the war and restore freedom of navigation.”
One such offer is the deployment of the German minesweeper Fulda, which sailed to the Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, even if Trump does not seek de-escalation, many Republican members of Congress still believe that a strong American military presence in Germany and Europe represents an advantage for the United States. Without it, the United States would not remain a global power in the long term.
Conclusions
Current indicators suggest that the possibility of transferring part of the American forces from Germany to Poland has become more realistic than ever before, particularly amid strategic shifts within U.S. defense policy. Washington no longer views Europe as the primary center of security gravity, with greater focus now directed toward confronting China and globally redistributing military resources.
Any reduction of forces in Germany would not merely represent a financial or political step, but rather part of a comprehensive repositioning within NATO. The United States is likely to strengthen its military presence in Eastern Europe rather than Western Europe, granting Poland a pivotal role due to its proximity to areas of tension with Russia and Belarus.
Warsaw has demonstrated political and military readiness to host additional American forces, alongside major investments in defense infrastructure and armament. Consequently, this shift could lead to growing tensions between Washington and Berlin, especially if Germany perceives the move as diminishing its importance within the Atlantic alliance framework. Nevertheless, a complete American withdrawal from Germany remains unlikely because of the logistical and historical value of the military bases there.
At the European level, joint defense projects and bilateral alliances are expected to accelerate, particularly between Poland, the United Kingdom, and the Baltic states, in anticipation of any future decline in direct American commitment to the continent’s security. In the longer term, Poland could emerge as the leading American military hub in Eastern Europe, while the balance of influence within NATO gradually shifts from the traditional German-centered axis toward a new eastern axis led by Warsaw with direct American backing.
European Centre for Counterterrorism and Intelligence Studies, Germany & Netherlands – ECCI
